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The news is everywhere: some weird disease makes the dead walking. We do not know yet if it is highly contagious. What should we do? What we do everyday: writing code. We can develop an agent based model, simulate the disease, and hopefully find the best strategy to survive. We can code, we'll be prepared ... or not. Help us caption & translate this video! http://amara.org/v/HKqd/
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In a presentation at Rocky Mountain Ruby 2015, Christophe Philemotte discusses preparing for a potential zombie epidemic through disease simulation models, particularly focusing on agent-based modeling. The talk begins with a light-hearted introduction to a fictional scenario involving a contagious and deadly disease causing zombie-like behavior among individuals. Christophe shares his expertise in developing disease simulation models for various companies and how programming can be leveraged to understand and potentially manage outbreak scenarios. Key points discussed in the video include: - **The Rise of the Zombie Scenario**: The initial portrayal of a rabies-like disease escalates to a serious epidemic, necessitating action from authorities and raising survival concerns for individuals. - **Role of Software Developers**: Christophe emphasizes that developers can use their coding skills to prepare for biological threats by coding simulations that mirror potential zombie outbreaks. - **Agent-Based Modeling**: He introduces the concept of agent-based models, which simulate individual interactions and behaviors in a defined environment, effectively modeling disease transmission. - **Simulation Environment**: The simulation begins with a two-dimensional map where agents are defined with various states (e.g., susceptible, infected, zombie, dead), and interactions among agents are based on proximity and predefined rules. - **Health States and Transitions**: Christophe details the health states of agents and how various actions (walking, fighting, or staying still) lead to transitions between health states based on interactions, including inevitable transitions from susceptible to infected. - **Implementation of Simulation**: The process involves looping through agent actions, recalculating their states, and removing deceased agents from the simulation. Examples of simulation results illustrate the dynamics of the outbreak and responses from living agents. - **Validation and Calibration**: He concludes with the importance of validating and calibrating the simulation to ensure accuracy and reliability, which involves integration tests and parameter adjustments to match real-world data. - **Concluding Thoughts**: The presentation emphasizes the potential of simulations in understanding epidemics and exploring strategies such as quarantines and vaccinations. Christophe invites audience engagement for further discussion and encourages exploration of the code available on GitHub. The talk highlights the intersection of technology and public health, illustrating how programming can play a critical role in responding to contagions like the fictional zombie epidemic.
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