Talks
Surviving the Framework Hype Cycle
Surviving the Framework Hype Cycle
by Brandon HaysIn the video titled "Surviving the Framework Hype Cycle," Brandon Hays presents a humorous and insightful exploration of the fast-paced evolution of JavaScript frameworks and various technologies in web development. The talk is structured around understanding the 'hype cycle,' a concept that illustrates how technologies gain and lose hype over time. Hays uses Ruby on Rails' history as a case study to discuss the following key points:
- The Hype Cycle: Hays introduces the Gartner hype cycle, detailing its phases which include technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, and plateau of productivity.
- Challenges Facing Developers: He emphasizes the overwhelming nature of keeping up with new frameworks and tools, which can cause developers to feel insecure about their skills and choices.
- Point of Disillusionment: Once a developer commits to a particular technology stack, it often doesn't meet their inflated expectations, leading to frustration and the feeling of being constantly outdated.
- The Predictable Nature of Technology Disruption: Hays explains that tech trends are predictable and highlights how even beloved frameworks can fade into obscurity, drawing parallels with Ruby on Rails and its decline in popularity as new tools emerge.
- The Role of Different Technologists: He categorizes developers into three archetypes: pioneers, settlers, and town planners, each with its approach to new technologies and community functions.
- Long-term Viability: Hays encourages developers to choose technologies with long-term viability and to focus on those that genuinely meet business needs rather than chasing every trend.
- Conclusion and Comfort: Brandon concludes by stating that while it's easy to feel pressured by the hype, developers should embrace their toolset and focus on productivity, rather than succumbing to feelings of inadequacy.
Overall, Hays presents his insights with humor and relatability, ultimately providing encouragement for developers navigating the complexities of modern web development.
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I think we should probably get started. I believe this is a good group, and everyone here is ready.
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Although it may feel like everyone is ready for a nap, let's ensure this is a nice, soothing, and relaxing experience.
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In literally every conference talk I've given, I've been scheduled directly after lunch.
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Initially, I thought it was just a coincidence, but after the first two or three times, it started feeling intentional.
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It seems like someone decided, 'Let's put that guy who talks really fast right after lunch!' I suspect there may be a conspiracy afoot.
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Anyway, we are here to have a bit of fun today. I'm from Austin. Who here is from Austin?
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Great! That's a solid crowd—many felt pressured to be here because they know me. Thank you!
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A lot of people associate Austin with 'Keep Austin Weird,' but I assure you that we don’t actually say that. It's akin to saying 'San Fran' in San Francisco. In Austin, the real phrase people use is 'breakfast tacos.' That's what we talk about.
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Today, we are here to learn about how to dockerize your React container. So, everyone, forget everything you know about web development because you're about to have your minds blown.
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Hold on—my Tech Death Watch app just informed me that Docker and React are over.
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Apologies, everyone! Forget everything I may or may not have taught you about Docker and React. According to Hacker News, I'm now going to show you how to webpack your Elm Kubernetes.
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But the first step to achieving 'Hello World' in webpacking your Elm Kubernetes is... well, I don't know what any of those terms really mean.
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For those not looking for that, many thought leaders in Tech have taught me to use your insecurities to sell things, and that's precisely what I'm here to do today.
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I'm going to take your insecurities and sell you things, but first, let's talk a little bit about midlife crises. Midlife crises can be complicated; some of you might be experiencing one right now.
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They basically occur when you face your mortality and decide to start making some rash decisions. This picture is of my dad when he was just a bit younger than I am now, sharing my enthusiasm for fanny packs.
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My dad went through a full-blown midlife crisis: he bought a red sports car, traveled the world, got remarried, and moved his whole family across the country.
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As web developers, our knowledge seems to expire so quickly that we often fixate on its mortality, which leads to making rash decisions.
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So if you’re new to Ruby or you just love it, I bring you a word of comfort regarding your career. If you feel comfortable with Ruby, I also bring you a word of caution: the web tends to reinvent itself every 45 seconds.
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It's tough to think beyond the frameworks we're supposed to learn, as it feels like we could instantly become unemployable.
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I’m Brandon, and I run the front side. I think we’re doing some really special work there.
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We’re trying to come up with a catchy slogan to convey our message. I’m open to feedback!
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This photo of us was taken a little over a year ago. We've always been a tight-knit group of folks, trying to teach and help each other, and yes, make each other feel awkward in Photoshop.
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We've grown since then, but our mission remains the same: we build great software.
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We like to work in JavaScript and aim to build ambitious front-ends using Ember, a JavaScript framework famous for being authored by a nearsighted hamster.
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It was while learning Ember that I noticed a pattern I'd like to share with you today, discussing the state of web development and making predictions.
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Let’s allow Clubber Lang to make a prediction for us: if you're trying to keep up with the pace of new tools, languages, and frameworks, it can feel overwhelming.
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So let’s dive into the first pain point: how are you supposed to stay on top of new tools, let alone evaluate them?
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Ember itself is about four and a half years old, but more than a few frameworks have come along since then.
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In what universe can we have 24 best frameworks? Seriously, we might be stretching the meaning of 'best' a bit.
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You just sit there, staring at all these choices, like an open fridge filled with mystery containers. None of them look very appetizing.
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People talk about these choices as if I'm supposed to know what they are and have evaluated them, but I haven't even heard of half of them.
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I feel like maybe I'm getting too old, like web development has run me over, or I'm having a midlife crisis and need to buy a sports car or become a manager.
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This experience feels like a mean-spirited treadmill that is always set to a pace just slightly faster than I can run.
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Who designed this ecosystem? Is it just here to torture us web developers?
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The second pain point emerges: once you actually decide on a stack, it seldom lives up to your expectations.
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Like you've been waiting 20 years for a new Indiana Jones movie, only to find out it's about aliens whose treasure is knowledge.
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So let’s say you do pick a tool that's not about aliens; great! But when it’s time to ship, you pull out that shiny new tool, and it all falls apart.
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What used to take minutes now takes days, documentation is scarce, and suddenly, you're diving into the source code to see if it's a bug or just user error.
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The third pain point is that it never feels safe to fall in love with your technology.
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We love Ruby, but it feels risky to get too attached to any tool.
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My grandpa used the same mitre saw for 30 years to build houses, but you don’t get to keep a tool for 30 months.
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I checked Google Trends before this talk, and I have some unsettling news.
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Ruby on Rails didn't make it. We did everything we could; we even tried adding WebSocket support.
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I’m so sorry—the injuries that Ruby sustained from Node were just too great. This part is always the hardest.
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I’ll see you at the crossroads, Ruby. Now, let’s talk about MySQL.
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It died so long ago that only old-timers even remember what it was, back when we still used relational databases.
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I loved my favorite front-end framework, which got killed last year because a new library showed up.
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What am I supposed to do now? It’s a little disputed since it's a four-year-old JavaScript framework well past its life expectancy.
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I went to EmberConf in March, where James Kyle, the creator of BabelJS, mourned with us at the giant funeral for Ember.
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I think everyone will remember where they were when they heard that Ruby had died. It makes you feel slightly guilty for all the times we danced on Java's grave.
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This process is predictable, so predictable there’s a chart for it.
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There's a company called Gartner that charts these tech trends for lots of large companies.
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In reality, once a technology gains popularity, it's harder to get rid of than Steven Seagal's films.
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We do this because we’re just trying to get from a higher state of pain to a lower one.
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When something new comes along, it promises to address and create dissatisfaction with our current tools.
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It's amazing how quickly this can transpire. Like you, I’m susceptible to this process.
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Back in 2007 at Macworld, Steve Jobs revealed the iPhone, and I was in disbelief. I took out my six-month-old phone and wanted to hurl it at the screen because it wasn’t an iPhone.
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Let’s look at this cycle through the lens of Rails history. First, we’ll look at it abstractly, then through Rails history.
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Finally, I want to offer comfort and caution to those who feel uneasy about the rapid pace of technological change.
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Naturally, we’ll start with the abstract concepts and discuss how this cycle operates.
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To mark the start of each phase, we’ll use Medium think pieces, which reflect the hype of technology.
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The first phase is the technology trigger—there's a launch that promises big things.
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Initial interest catches some early adopters, and then the Hacker News crowd jumps on it.
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They get excited and upvote it, and the tech is off to the races.
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Next, we reach the peak of inflated expectations. Suddenly, it’s all anyone talks about—performance, security, new capabilities.
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At some point, the rocket ride is over, and we find ourselves in the trough of disillusionment.
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The tech doesn’t meet those outrageous expectations, and you see people loudly quitting, with wailing and the gnashing of teeth.
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However, if the tech survives, you reach the slope of enlightenment. You begin to see light at the end of the tunnel.
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You hear things like 2.0 and 3.0 coming to life; the learning tools, materials, and community start to stabilize.
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Finally, you get to a nice plateau of productivity where a group of people becomes quietly productive.
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At this point, they don’t see the need to talk about it much anymore.
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I’ll share this: something I’ve learned about Hacker News is that you’ll never hear about this plateau there.
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Yes, we've been quietly productive with Ember for about 18 months now, and it’s been pretty nice.
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But where are the upvotes? Boo! Go home; you're boring.
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So, those are the peaks and valleys of successful technologies if they survive that trough.
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Now let’s look at this through the lens of Ruby on Rails’ history.
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How many of you remember the phrase: 'It just uses Ruby everywhere'?
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Look at how few things you have to do to get to 'Hello World.' It’s not a lot at all!
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How many of you here remember that? That’s a startlingly small percentage.
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That's actually good because it means only a few of you are near death.
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That was the technology trigger, but the bad news is yes, you are old!
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I wasn't even a programmer yet when I first saw that, but my friends who were programmers showed it to me. I thought, 'I want to do this for a living; that’s amazing!'
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Luckily for us, BuzzFeed was there to capture every step of Rails' rise to power.
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The trigger event here is where tech analysts and the Hacker News crowd trip over themselves to scoop up this new framework.
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You start hearing these exaggerated claims like 'It will make your wildest dreams come true and cure rabies!'
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The hype builds up until it becomes a little ludicrous, and that's when Rails hits its peak of inflated expectations.
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I really wanted to create a Photoshop to illustrate this. How could I possibly do something better than this?
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Let’s reflect on how this was a thing: Ruby Everywhere! It was GQ for programmers!
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You could build a web app, migrate a database, fix a leaky gutter, or even fix your marriage. Ruby could solve all those problems!
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Who can forget the Depeche Mode classic from back then?
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If only someone in the community had the foresight to predict this back around 2006.”
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That someone was, of course, why the lucky stiff; I wish I could thank him for all he’s done.
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He inspired me to see that code could be art when I was intimidated by the idea of learning programming.
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He provided an astoundingly poignant warning for us a decade ago; I encourage you to watch his entire RailsConf talk.
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He did a video series called 'The Least Surprised,' discussing the hype machine rolling down the street.
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People have tried to hit the brakes, but they seem to be burned out by the ongoing hype.
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Great projects have used Ruby, proving you can accomplish your wildest dreams.
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I even used Ruby to lure Catherine Zeta-Jones into my unicorn petting zoo. Yes, you heard that right!
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So, we arrive at this frothy peak. Just mentioning Ruby in the title of your introductory conference talk guarantees a standing-room-only crowd.
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You can Google for hundreds of 'Hello World' tutorials, but many fail to help you genuinely understand the technology.
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Still, you think the promise of productivity gains mean you'll finally ship web apps ten times faster.
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When a recruiter asks if you're a rock star or Jedi, you’ll confidently respond with both!
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This means you get to impress your boss, fulfill your wildest dreams, buy a house, and get a raise.
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That's not the actual promise, but it’s the one we buy into; and all the hot air from inflated expectations seeps into our egos.
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We start thinking everyone who came before us was wrong, and we’re just a little more right than everyone else.
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You even get to stand on stage and declare just how wrong the establishment has been.
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But like drinking expired soy sauce, reality catches up with you. Technology inevitably goes through the trough.
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If only someone could have predicted this, right?
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Some people in the room here don't share the same vast vision for Ruby that others might.
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There is no point in indulging these decadent wishes any further, just setting this all up for a huge crash.
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When things fail to pan out, idealism fades, and attention shifts to new languages and frameworks.
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I like to call this imaginary future language Absinthe, smooth and creamy, scented with the purest licorice.
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But really, Absinthe is the apocalypse.
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Imagine this: the thing that caused people to leave is now causing them to leave for more alluring pastures.
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This phase is also marked by prominent defectors, and some industry veterans could probably comment on this.
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However, this X-piece is possibly my personal favorite. It's an excellent piece of artwork!
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At this phase for Rails, there were some prominent defectors, but one story stands out.
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I met this guy at MW Ruby, and while he seemed fine, he offered to fight every developer present.
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That seemed a bit aggressive—after all, we're just discussing character interpreters in characters we type into computers.
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Once those early adopters get mad and declare your tool dead, it starts doing real work.
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This is where we start seeing service-oriented architecture at conferences.
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You know people's technology is getting used for serious work when they have to speak XML over non-restful endpoints.
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At this point, blog tutorials turn into book deals, and this loose affiliation of enthusiasts becomes a real community.
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All those enterprise dollars flow in, buying race cars—not to mention the funding for startups!
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Eventually, you reach this plateau where many become quietly productive with the technology.
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And suddenly, it doesn't feel cool to talk about being quietly productive.
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There’s no more magazine covers, and it feels like it’s been a decade since MySQL did something anyone considers cool.
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But what is cool? Billions of dollars! Yes, with an S! So is Rails a good or bad technology?
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It doesn't matter; what matters is that it's entrenched and productive.
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Here, let's take a quick detour before we dive back into Rails' history.
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In a RubyConf talk last year, I shared the concept of three predominant personality traits among technologists.
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They are pioneers, settlers, and town planners. Let’s go through a quick version of that.
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Pioneers itch for the latest technology; they love exploring and thrilling in discovery.
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Settlers aim to create order from chaos; they built infrastructure and connect pioneering work to real business needs.
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Town planners seek to effectively scale things up. They care about making technology practical, even boring!
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Now, let’s dive back into the history to see how this plays out.
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My theory is that DHH (David Heinemeier Hansson) is a settler who was pushed into pioneering solutions out of frustration.
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I doubt he would disagree that many of his ideas were lifted from pioneers like Martin Fowler.
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Outside of Utah, people don't realize how important pioneers are; they even get their own holiday on July 24th.
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It's bigger than the 4th of July! When Rails was introduced, the tech community celebrated DHH.
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Rails was surprisingly familiar, yet using it was a real challenge; I’m sure many here remember deploying pre-1.0 Rails apps.
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How many of you here remember how fun that actually was? Not!
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Some poor folks bet their companies on this unproven new technology.
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This was formerly a demo store for Shopify, extracted from Toby L’s original business.
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Eventually, the settlers showed up, providing the necessary guides and tools needed to build out Ruby on Rails.
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As Rails grew, the architecture changed to adapt to complex needs, which led to modularity and systems like Active Record.
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With big money moving in, Rails had to start addressing enterprise needs.
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At this point, both your bank and the startup disturbing your bank are likely using Rails.
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This is how these three archetypes play out in a successful community; every community has all three in various degrees.
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Let’s take a quiz. Which irritates you the most: being required to use outdated tools, team members trying to rewrite everything in the latest hype stack, or anything that gets in the way of shipping?
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What do you enjoy the most? Accepting a pull request for your open-source library, applying technology to generate revenue, or solving a tricky performance issue?
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Where do you feel most helpful? Showing someone a new way of doing things, improving their documentation, or automating a tedious deployment process?
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Each of these roles proves valuable in the tech landscape.
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Pioneers experiment, while settlers connect their work to real problems.
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Town planners help tackle the sparse needs that scale; they deserve recognition.
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We tend to dismiss those who do not share a similar outlook, leading to snarky remarks.
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Criticism of Millennials is often hilarious, often mistaken, and rarely accurate.
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In reality, we take on all roles; it is advantageous to lean on what we excel at.
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I perform best in the settler camp; I enjoy connecting technology with practical outcomes.
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Now we know about the hype cycle and our preferences. So, what's next?
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Once informed, you can set yourself up for preemptive success in your career. If you don't understand this cycle, you can easily watch your skills become obsolete.
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You might burn out trying to keep up with trends or settle for technology that doesn’t endure.
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Alternatively, you could choose to step back entirely and remain a frontend programmer.
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This may feel like information overload, but once you grasp the cycle, you can navigate its strings.
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Ideally, this means you'll focus on tech that truly aligns with your values.
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Consider the cycle concerning your personality type. You don’t need to obsess over every new tool.
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However, if you feel obligated to investigate something new, ask: What state is it in, and should I care?
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Pioneers should quickly grab interesting new tools and dive in; settlers should observe, and town planners can reject it for now.
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At the peak, it’s the Pioneers’ time to shine, while settlers exercise skepticism but maintain openness.
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During this phase, Pioneers reap the rewards, consulting, writing blogs, and possibly becoming core team members.
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Once the trend cools and peaks toward the trough, Pioneers may exit the ride.
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If it seems likely to survive, settlers should step in, and town planners can pay attention to it.
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Pioneers at the slope of enlightenment can now consider stepping out.
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Technologies begin growing sustainably, thanks to enterprising settlers establishing consultancies and products.
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Town planners need to quickly catch up with new tutorials, as they may have to interact with this new tech soon.
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Finally, we reach this plateau of productivity, where settlers can apply this now low-risk tech to new problems.
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Town planners can assist with scaling and improve performance.
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What was once a mere toy solution may now successfully handle transactions for Fortune 500 companies.
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I promised to provide comfort and a caution, so let’s start with the comfort.
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You may be wondering about your favorite technology's place in the ecosystem, with competitors appearing out of the blue.
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Worries may arise around whether your tools are outdated or if you'll need to transition to this shinier technology.
00:22:48.480
Over the past year, I've been working in a production Rails 2 application.
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While it is full of problems, they aren’t related to it running Rails 2.
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I also have a side project in Elixir and Phoenix. I cannot shake the feeling that, had I used Rails, I’d have been done five times over by now.
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It's crucial to stop this cycle of making people feel inferior for working with tools that make them feel productive.
00:23:16.120
Let me make this clear: no one has the right to make you feel ashamed for liking the technologies you do.
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When the tables are turned, and someone prefers something you don’t, consider the implications.
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Please be careful not to 'yuck' someone else's 'yum'—it drives away the very people we need in our community.
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And I know many of us, including me, have made such dismissive comments in the past.
00:23:42.960
Moving on, I wasn’t originally going to take questions, but it seems we have one.
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Brandon, if Ruby isn't dead, why do you run a JavaScript consultancy? It’s a fair question.
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If so, doesn't that make you a hypocrite? Well, first off, ouch.
00:24:05.920
Secondly, I genuinely prefer working on the front end, although my opinion on how JavaScript should be utilized can stir controversy.
00:24:12.400
I'd argue that if you're establishing a consultancy today, Rails isn’t the best specialty choice.
00:24:18.960
Technologies at a plateau serve as the pickaxes in a gold rush; their worth lies in early expertise.
00:24:25.600
Transitioning to more general problem-solving—solving scalability issues for various clients—may also be beneficial.
00:24:33.440
While this edge of technology evolves swiftly, if you neglect continuous learning, you'll fall behind.
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If your current role seems confined to assistance—like holding someone else’s phone, consider shifting gears.
00:24:47.440
In the world of sports (like basketball), you can often pivot and determine what tech works best for you and your projects.
00:24:56.640
Using one tech to ship products, while engaging in another for fun, could yield massive success.
00:25:01.920
If it takes off for you, that’s great! The more you engage with it, the better you'll become.
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If it fails to catch on, switching it out isn’t a big deal.
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There’s a time for learning, and a time for effectively shipping deliverables.
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By following this pattern, you'll seldom feel tossed by the cycle. You can leverage the tools you enjoy working with for new challenges.
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I still love Ruby, but I’m a full-time JavaScript developer now.
00:25:39.680
The transition wasn’t dramatic—there was no specific moment where I abandoned Ruby; it just evolved naturally.
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Last warning: technologies that bet everything on hitting a peak often falter.
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Seek tech with a long-term vision that extends down to the productivity plateau.
00:26:02.240
Personal tech exploration likely parallels the same curve; it’s essential to understand that hype.
00:26:10.640
You might kick off with a tutorial and think 'Awesome! I've done it!' with a simple app, but that won't be production-ready.
00:26:18.000
New technologies can create illusions of fast success, raising expectations that lead to disappointment.
00:26:26.000
Things may take longer and suddenly, your initial excitement fizzles.
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So why endure that? Why invest emotional pain into pursuing the next big thing?
00:26:41.840
Ponder this: our industry fundamentally evolved. The problems we tackle—and the reasons behind them—have changed.
00:26:49.840
Over the past ten years, we noticed user-centered design, where UX drives technology enforcement.
00:26:57.440
Tools we created years ago aimed to solve various problems that are now outdated.
00:27:06.320
In a constantly shifting environment, we need instruments to tackle this new UX-driven architecture.
00:27:13.600
There’s a shift back towards client-side UI tools to solve these unsolved problems.
00:27:20.440
I did some side work in Ember and felt great about my choice.
00:27:27.600
I think it’s awesome when I hear people starting to refer to it as boring.
00:27:35.440
The bet may change, but understanding the reasons behind these choices is crucial.
00:27:42.720
Sometimes it makes sense to switch to something new, and some pioneering types will maintain that wave.
00:27:50.640
However, if you focus on shipping, you can enter a midlife crisis if you keep throwing money at trends.
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Be cautious of slipping into outdated habits or riding the hype continuous wave.
00:28:07.680
Tools that demonstrate durability, like Rails and Ember, tend to brush past hype periods and concentrate on output.
00:28:15.560
They exemplify philosophies that display long-term thinking and mentorship.
00:28:23.520
But realize, the clarity lies in your capacity to contribute actual business value.
00:28:32.720
And on this plateau, you begin to question: 'Is my boss an idiot?' Not necessarily, but you gain that clarity.
00:28:41.760
Focus on delivering business value means you can make important decisions—and perhaps even fire your boss!
00:28:50.640
And the transformation sets you on the path for your midlife crisis, but that's a different story!
00:28:57.440
That's all for now; looking forward to our next session!
